Past, Present, and Future Climate Trends

The world's climate has never stayed the same, and it never will. There a few key forces for influencing change to a particular climate. The driving forces behind the geographical change of an area is Plate Tectonics. This phenomenon is due to the separating, shifting, colliding, and joining of the Earth's tectonic plates. As the earth has shuffled around the continents for billions of years, we will first look at the plate tectonics and the driving climate forces that Navarre experienced a 100M years ago.

Looking at the example map from a 100Ma the continents appear to be closely grouped together with the latitude roughly the same at about 30 degrees N, and also the Gulf Coast appears to be much more estuarine environment than it is now. This is probably due to higher sea levels at the time and minimal deposition from the Quaternary deposits brought down from the rivers that empty into the Gulf. These swampy regions would yield even higher humidity. I would assume to that at this time the Gulf Stream current would be even more prevalent in the area because of the all-around warmer global temperatures. I feel these types of conditions resulted in favoring many large hurricanes into the area.

Navarre's current geographic at 30 degrees N latitude, in the Southeastern United States falls under the Koppen-Geiger scale as a humid subtropical climate. The specific classification for the region is Cfa, which means warm temperate, fully humid, and hot summers.

Looking at Navarre's climate from a meso-scale two trends occur. First is its proximity to the Gulf of Mexico which constantly brings in humid air into the region from the warm water surface temperatures, especially in the summer. This saturated air spawns afternoon thunderstorms throughout the summer all along the Florida coast. Navarre receives just over 60 inches of precipitation every year, with the majority of the rain falling in July with an average of almost 8 inches, and April is the driest with about 4 inches of precipitation.

Navarre's landmass has a great threat of being underwater a hundred million years from now. With an average base elevation of less than 20 feet, it has a great risk to succumb to rising sea levels. It would become a total maritime climate as the sea surface temperatures in the shallowing Gulf of Mexico. Also the projection from a 100M Years in the future shows Navarre's location retreating to the south, it appears to be about 27 degrees N latitude, which would mean even more precipitation and higher temperatures.

The yellow arrow indicates Navarre's location a 100 million years ago.

The yellow arrow indicates Navarre's location present day.

The yellow arrow indicates Navarre's location a 100 million years from now.

*Source: 

NOAA

National Hurricane Center

Pensacola News Journal

Weather.com, "Monthly Temp. Averages"

Weather and Climate of Navarre, FL vs. Palm Desert, CA

For my final blog reflection I have chose to compare the climates of Palm Desert, CA and Navarre, FL. The distance between these two locations stretches nearly 2000 miles and host two entirely different climate types.

Navarre to Palm Desert (1,978 Miles) 
*Source: GoogleMaps

The annual temperature graphs from 2010 weather station data show the two locations differences in daily temperatures throughout the year. In Palm Desert, the July monthly average high is 108F and the December monthly average low is 44F. Navarre's July has a monthly average of 90F, and the December monthly average low is 42F.

Top: Navarre, Bottom: Palm Desert. *Source: WeatherUnderground,com

Comparing the locations on the Köppen–Geiger Climate Classification map we see the differences between the two place's climates. Palm Desert falls in the classification system as BWh meaning a subtropical desert climate. "Warm and arid (very dry) year-round. Temperatures average above freezing year-round. Annual rainfall totals not more than 19 Inches and usually totals less than 10 Inches" (Hydrology and Earth System Sciences). Looking into Navarre's climate from the map it is observed that the surrounding region is all classified as Cfa or Humid Subtropical. 

Köppen–Geiger Climate Classification map of North America

*Source: http://people.eng.unimelb.edu.au/mpeel/Koppen/North_America.jpg

*Sources: 

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci, "Updated world map of the Koppen-Geiger climate classification", http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/11/1633/2007/hess-11-1633-2007.pdf

NOAA, "Climate Graphs",

http://cdo.ncdc.noaa.gov/climatenormals/clim20/fl/086997.pdf


Weather.com, "Monthly Temp. Averages"

The Climate of Navarre

Navarre's geographic location in the Southeastern United States falls under the Koppen-Geiger scale as a humid subtropical climate. The specific classification for the region is Cfa, which means warm temperate, fully humid, and hot summers.

Looking at Navarre's climate from a meso-scale two trends occur. First is its proximity to the Gulf of Mexico which constantly brings in humid air into the region from the warm water surface temperatures, especially in the summer. This saturated air spawns afternoon thunderstorms throughout the summer all along the Florida coast. Navarre receives just over 60 inches of precipitation every year, with the majority of the rain falling in July with an average of almost 8 inches, and April is the driest with about 4 inches of precipitation.

Typical summertime thunderstorm over the Intracoastal Waterway in Navarre (http://www.rustypants.net/). 

The next regional climate trend that exists in the area falls under the category of secondary atmospheric circulation patterns, and that is the threat of Hurricanes. Eight major hurricanes have made land fall close to Navarre in the last 40 years. In the last decade two hurricanes have hit in the region. Navarre was struck by a category 3 storm, Hurricane Ivan, on the eastern side of the eye wall . It brought strong winds and storm surge leveling many buildings and structures throughout the area in 2004.

The 3,000 mile path of Hurricane Ivan in September 2004 (National Hurricane Center 2005).

After Hurricane Ivan made landfall in neighboring Pensacola, FL (http://neorepublica.com/index.php).

Looking at previous weather data for my location back to 2006, the climate trends have little variance. However I did notice that the summertime temperatures were a few degrees warmer now than the average summertime temperatures in the past.

*Sources: NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Pensacola News Journal

Weather and Climate of Navarre, FL vs. Fairbanks, AK

Fairbanks and Navarre are over 4,000 miles apart. With the great distance between the two locations, means a drastic variance in weather patterns.

Navarre to Fairbanks

Navarre Average High Temp: 77F
Navarre Average Low Temp: 59F


Fairbanks Average High Temp: 37F
Fairbanks Average Low Temp: 16F


Looking first at Fairbanks, it is located on the central interior of Alaska. Here temperatures will dip to -40 degrees Fahrenheit in the Winter, and Summer temperatures will rarely exceed 80 degrees Fahrenheit.


The most commonly known air mass in this region is the Continental Polar. The Polar High is formed out of this air mass as it brings crippling cold, and extremely dry air. "The mP moves in during the winter, blowing cool, humid air from the ocean into the state. This air mass causes a warm-type occluded front.  The warm-type occluded front carries with it cool air from the Pacific Ocean gently nudging the cold air originating over the continent.  This pushes the warm air aloft and forms precipitation"(NSIDC).



Fairbanks in Winter (http://www.rocketbanner.com/images/vinyl-banners-fairbanks.jpg)


Next looking at Navarre, the trends in weather are much different. In northern Florida, summer time temps will top out in the mid 90's and winter night time lows will rarely go below freezing.  


The location in the northern Gulf Coast allow for a mild-dry winters and hot-humid summers. The proximity to the Gulf Coast gives way to a Maritime Tropical air mass the majority of the time. This air mass is created due to the warm surface temperatures of the Gulf of Mexico. On rare occasions, Continental Polar air masses will dip down into the area and push temperatures below freezing during the nighttime low during the winter months.



Navarre in Winter (http://www.destination360.com/north-america/us/florida/destin/images/s/navarre-beach.jpg)


*Sources: Southeast Regional Climate Center
                  National Snow and Ice Data Center 
                  http://cdo.ncdc.noaa.gov/climatenormals/clim20/fl/086997.pdf

Air Masses and Moisture

Navarre's location in the northern Gulf Coast allow for a mild-dry winters and hot-humid summers. The proximity to the Gulf Coast gives way to a Maritime Tropical air mass the majority of the time. This air mass is created due to the warm surface temperatures of the Gulf of Mexico that is fed by the Gulf-stream ocean current. 


The warm waters in the area, especially in the summer, feed into the high amounts of evaporation. As a result of the summer sun bearing down on the mainland, the suns energy is adsorbed and then radiated back into the air saturated with water vapor. With these processes in place it allows for daily afternoon thunderstorms and rain showers because of the rising, and then drastically falling pressure.   


Severe weather systems result often from the passing of large frontal systems of low pressure expanding well into the interior of the country all the way south to the Gulf of Mexico's warm waters. These fronts collide with the high pressure system previously in the area and create inclement weather. These storms typically create severe weather, and commonly spawn tornadoes.

On rare occasions, Continental Polar air masses will dip down into the area and push temperatures below freezing during the nighttime low. This is a result of the Polar high being moved by the jet-stream to the extreme southern United States.

 

(A Map indicating unstable atmospheric conditions from the Gulf joining a Low pressure system coming in from the north. Resulting in Severe weather.)

(A current map of the frontal systems in the area, a current high pressure system is dominating the Southeastern United States)

(Severe weather breaking out ahead of a low pressure area pulling eastward out of the Southern Plains and into the southeast including Northern Florida.)


*Sources: Southeast Regional Climate Center

Location:
Navarre, is located on the Panhandle of Northwestern Florida, less than 3 miles from the Gulf of Mexico. It is located next to the East River and the Santa Rosa Sound.

Lat: N 30 ° 25 ' 53 '' ( 30.431 ° )

Lon: W 86 ° 55 ' 44 '' ( -86.929 ° )

Elevation (ft): 34

Geographic Setting:
The surrounding area is apart of the Gulf Coastal Plain composed mostly of sandy soils. The low elevation of the terrain makes it vulnerable to storm surge from hurricanes. Some of the most notable Hurricanes to strike the area in the last 20 years were Erin, Opal, Ivan, and Dennis.

Climate and Seasonality:

Navarre has is a humid subtropical climate with hot humid summers and mild brief winters. Due to the warm surface temperatures of the Gulf in the summer, afternoon thunderstorms are common. This results in July being Navarre’s wettest month.  In the winter, night time lows dip below freezing on an average of 14 nights a year. 

Average Spring Temperature- 78°F

Average Summer Temperature- 82°F

Average Fall Temperature- 73°F

Average Winter Temperature- 59°F

*Sources: 
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLNAVAR7&day=17&year=2011&month=9&graphspan=year

http://www.santarosa.fl.gov/zoning/nbmp/Part2a.pdf

http://www.weather.com/outlook/recreation/outdoors/wxclimatology/monthly/graph/USFL0399?from=search

http://cdo.ncdc.noaa.gov/climatenormals/clim20/fl/086997.pdf